So I have been asked a lot recently about the oil. For whatever i’s worth, here are my feelings:
The simple fact of the matter is that we have no historical evidence of what a spill of this magnitude will do. In fact, we have no idea what the magnitude of the spill will be since it has not been stopped. Beyond the conflicting estimates of the actual spill rate (BP’s estimate? 1,000 barrels a day….the lowest of any….weird, huh?) there is the issue of the dispersants being pumped into the oil at the spill site, which has never been done before. This could be causing the oil to stay under the surface and cause additional missteps in the flow estimates.
So what does this mean for Key West and the lower Keys?? We have no idea. Will the oil get into the loop current? Yes, at some point, it will. Will it drape our beaches with a number of inches of crude? probably not; in fact, the loop current passes us to the West by quite a wide margin, and it would be suprising to see much more than a light sheen by the time it has been diluted along the way. However, ecosytems are fragile, as we all know, and the long erm effect of this spill is simply unknowable. Will it have a negative effect on our fishing? My head says yes, the rest of me says no.
Local captains: KEEP ANY AND ALL CANCELLATIONS AND/OR CONCERNS FROM CIENTS DUE TO THE SPILL IN WRITING FOR FUTURE LITIGATION.
The tar balls found on our beaches were determined to not have originated from the Deepwater Horizon.